- Commission fines banks for participating in cartels in interest rate derivatives industry
- RBS suffers major IT problems
- ABN AMRO to acquire domestic private banking activities of Credit Suisse in Germany
- Bank of Ireland escapes need to generate additional capital
- Banco Sabadell acquires JGB Bank in Miami
- UBS changes Group Executive Board and Corporate Centre
- Monitise launches white paper on next-generation mobile banking expired
- ACI Worldwide strengthens its position in the Americas expired
- Lord Blackwell appointed Chairman of Lloyds Banking Group expired
- BofA Merrill launches new transaction services in Brazil expired
- Tarmin transforms data management for financial service organisations expired
- BMO reports record net income and announces repurchase of common shares expired
20th July 2012
McKinsey on european bank profitability
McKinsey forecasts the overall fall in Return on Equity amongst banks located in the four leading European banking countries as 4%, altering from 10% in 2010 down to 6%. The company believes the overall fall is inevitable, however individual banks are capable of actions to lessen the affect on their organisation. It adds that the banks identified as Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFI a.k.a Too Big Too Fail) will be subject to a further decline of between 0.4% and 1.2%.
The UK banks are seem particularly hard hit with a 48% decline in profitability. ROE is expected to drop from 14% down to 7%. The other three market declines are:
- Germany from 7% down to 4%
- France from 14% down to 10%
- Italy from 5% down to 3%
Basel III is seen as the main reason with the mass of other global regulatory actions seen as impacting. The forthcoming Mortgage Directive and MiFID II are seen as the next most important culprits. Mortgage products followed by investment products and debit cards are seen as suffering the most decline in profitability.
The four key actions available to the banks are seen as:
- Asset optimisation. McKinsey estimate can add 30-160bp by this method
- Changing of product mix to those requiring less Capital and funding-light. Estimated improvement to ROE is estimated at between 10-80bp.
- Some selective repricing.
- Substantial business-model realignment. This is viewed as 'the single most important lever'. Much of this relates to cost cutting. McKinsey makes the point that cost reduction may be achieved at least in part by taking advantage of advances in IT and latest consumer trends. Selective acquisitions and disposals are also seen as part of this point. Savings from this area are seen as potentially 20-30%.
Often the best plans are those which appear logical. The fact that banks have to one degree or another attempted to address these points alrady is one recognised by McKinsey. The company gives the example of asset optimisation where some banks have had noticeable success limiting the opportunity for some to make major additional savings.
Perhaps the most important point McKinsey make is the need for a "a regulatory mitigation road map, which can be embedded into a comprehensive strategic review, to rebuild ROE step by step". For sure, this paper should make a good checklist for executives, strategic planners and financial planners to compare with their own organisation's plans.
The paper can be read at:
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