- Co-operative Bank agrees capital plan with regulator
- Confidence rises for UK financial system, says BoE survey
- Paul Tucker to leave the Bank of England
- ING to sell Mexican mortgage business to Santander
- Financial services fines increasingly focused on lapses in risk management says IIA
- Payments Council publishes ground-breaking infrastructure report
- EBRD steps up support for Romanian SMEs expired
- JPMorgan Chase announces One Equity Partners to raise future funds independently expired
- Societe Generale strengthens its presence in sub-Saharan Africa expired
- Pope announces new interim prelate for Vatican Bank expired
- ANB launches Ferrari Credit Card in Saudi Arabia expired
- UOB partners with Sumitomo to launch Asia Pacific Real Estate Fund expired
20th July 2012
McKinsey on european bank profitability
McKinsey forecasts the overall fall in Return on Equity amongst banks located in the four leading European banking countries as 4%, altering from 10% in 2010 down to 6%. The company believes the overall fall is inevitable, however individual banks are capable of actions to lessen the affect on their organisation. It adds that the banks identified as Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFI a.k.a Too Big Too Fail) will be subject to a further decline of between 0.4% and 1.2%.
The UK banks are seem particularly hard hit with a 48% decline in profitability. ROE is expected to drop from 14% down to 7%. The other three market declines are:
- Germany from 7% down to 4%
- France from 14% down to 10%
- Italy from 5% down to 3%
Basel III is seen as the main reason with the mass of other global regulatory actions seen as impacting. The forthcoming Mortgage Directive and MiFID II are seen as the next most important culprits. Mortgage products followed by investment products and debit cards are seen as suffering the most decline in profitability.
The four key actions available to the banks are seen as:
- Asset optimisation. McKinsey estimate can add 30-160bp by this method
- Changing of product mix to those requiring less Capital and funding-light. Estimated improvement to ROE is estimated at between 10-80bp.
- Some selective repricing.
- Substantial business-model realignment. This is viewed as 'the single most important lever'. Much of this relates to cost cutting. McKinsey makes the point that cost reduction may be achieved at least in part by taking advantage of advances in IT and latest consumer trends. Selective acquisitions and disposals are also seen as part of this point. Savings from this area are seen as potentially 20-30%.
Often the best plans are those which appear logical. The fact that banks have to one degree or another attempted to address these points alrady is one recognised by McKinsey. The company gives the example of asset optimisation where some banks have had noticeable success limiting the opportunity for some to make major additional savings.
Perhaps the most important point McKinsey make is the need for a "a regulatory mitigation road map, which can be embedded into a comprehensive strategic review, to rebuild ROE step by step". For sure, this paper should make a good checklist for executives, strategic planners and financial planners to compare with their own organisation's plans.
The paper can be read at:
[you may have to register in order to view]